Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic-epidemic model.

We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic-epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.

Model with transmission delays for COVID‐19 control: Theory and empirical assessment

The paper focuses on modeling of public health measures to control the COVID‐19 pandemic. The authors suggest a flexible integral model with distributed lags, which realistically describes COVID‐19 infectiousness period from clinical data. It contains susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR), susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR), and other epidemic models as special cases. The model is used for assessing how government decisions to lockdown and reopen the economy affect epidemic spread. The authors demonstrate essential differences in transition and asymptotic dynamics of the integral model and the SIR model after lockdown. The provided simulation on real data accurately describes several waves of the COVID‐19 epidemic in the United States and is in good correspondence with government actions to curb the epidemic.

Model with transmission delays for COVID-19 control: Theory and empirical assessment.

The paper focuses on modeling of public health measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors suggest a flexible integral model with distributed lags, which realistically describes COVID-19 infectiousness period from clinical data. It contains susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR), susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR), and other epidemic models as special cases. The model is used for assessing how government decisions to lockdown and reopen the economy affect epidemic spread. The authors demonstrate essential differences in transition and asymptotic dynamics of the integral model and the SIR model after lockdown. The provided simulation on real data accurately describes several waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States and is in good correspondence with government actions to curb the epidemic.